Global Sovereign Risk Dashboard
PostgreSQL · Tableau · Excel · Python · IMF WEO & World Bank GEM data
An end-to-end early-warning system across 183 countries. Raw IMF and World Bank feeds were cleaned, deduplicated, and reconciled into a 4-pillar, 8-indicator weighted "Safe Score" — modelled loosely on S&P / Moody's / Fitch sovereign methodology — then backtested against three real crises to confirm it would have flagged trouble early.
Outcome — Backtesting showed the Safe Score would have flagged deteriorating conditions in Sri Lanka, Ghana, and Pakistan ahead of their 2022 debt crises, giving the model real evidence it can surface early warning signals rather than confirm a crisis after the fact.
- 10 PostgreSQL analytical queries using CTEs, window functions (LAG/LEAD/RANK), and multi-table joins across four risk pillars
- Caught and corrected a silent
DISTINCT ON / ORDER BYlogic error that had been substituting IMF forecasts for observed actuals - 6 interactive Tableau dashboards — 20+ worksheets, 150+ calculated fields — with diverging risk maps and parameter-driven country drill-down
Main Dashboard
The overview screen: 183 countries on a diverging risk map, live counts of Safe, Watchlist, and High-Risk economies, a ranked score table, and a debt-doubling-time leaderboard running from the fastest-eroding economies to the safest.
Business QuestionWhich countries need attention right now?
InsightA single map and ranked table surfaces Watchlist and High-Risk economies at a glance, instead of requiring a country-by-country review.
DecisionUse the debt-doubling-time leaderboard to prioritize which economies get a deeper drill-down first.
Executive Summary
Export growth by income group laid against each safe and unsafe country's current-account trend, surfacing where a quietly deteriorating trade balance is eating into a country's safety margin before it shows up elsewhere.
Business QuestionIs a country's trade position quietly weakening before its overall risk score shows it?
InsightExport growth and current-account trends often move before the composite Safe Score does.
DecisionTreat a worsening current-account trend as an early flag, not just a supporting data point.
Model Validation
Safe Score trajectories for Sri Lanka, Ghana, and Pakistan visibly deteriorating ahead of their real 2022 debt crises, benchmarked against stable economies like the US, China, and India.
Business QuestionWould this model actually have caught a real crisis in advance?
InsightReserve adequacy and fiscal indicators collapsed in the Safe Score before the 2022 debt crises became public knowledge.
DecisionPrioritize reserve adequacy and fiscal-balance indicators as leading, not lagging, signals in the monitoring workflow.
Solvency & Fiscal
Every underlying indicator's z-score plotted year over year — fiscal balance, GDP growth, government debt, inflation, reserve adequacy — so it's clear exactly which lever is pushing a country's score up or down.
Business QuestionFor a specific country, what exactly is driving its risk score?
InsightAggregate scores hide which individual indicator is responsible for a change; the z-score breakdown does not.
DecisionDrill into the single indicator behind a score movement instead of reacting to the headline number alone.
Income & Trade
Export growth broken out by income group — high, upper-middle, lower-middle, low — layered against each safe and unsafe country's current-account trajectory, showing where trade momentum is diverging by income tier and which countries' account positions are stabilizing or worsening.
Business QuestionDoes risk exposure differ by income tier, or is it evenly spread?
InsightTrade momentum diverges meaningfully by income group, so a single global benchmark can mask tier-specific weakness.
DecisionCompare a country against peers in its own income tier rather than the full 183-country pool.
Risk Composition & Rankings
The top 10 safest and least-safe economies by Safe Score, paired with year-over-year change, so a worsening trend stands out even before a country crosses into high-risk territory.
Business QuestionWho's trending toward risk, not just who's already there?
InsightPairing the rank with year-over-year change catches a country sliding toward high-risk before it crosses the threshold.
DecisionFlag countries with the sharpest negative year-over-year change for monitoring, even if their absolute score still looks safe.