From the IMF WEO · World Bank GEM 184-country reference universe · 2000–2031 .
Ten analytical screens built on IMF World Economic Outlook forecasts and World Bank Global Economic Monitor market data — cross-checking solvency, currency valuation, fiscal quality and structural trajectory to surface sovereign stress before it becomes a headline. Use the console above to slice every screen by region, country, composite safe score or year.
Regional Sovereign Stress Clustering
Which regions carry the highest concentration of simultaneously stressed countries — combining debt burden, reserve adequacy, fiscal deficit and current account deficit into one regional stress score. Stress compounds regionally through trade linkages, shared currency zones and investor sentiment; it is rarely a solo event.
Regional stress score vs. GDP share exposed
Bubble size = total regional GDPCountry-level stress detail
The Reserves-vs-Debt Solvency Cross-Check
Among high-debt countries, how many actual dollars of FX reserves exist for every dollar of government debt — and is that cushion shrinking right now? A true apples-to-apples solvency ratio, not two figures in incompatible units sitting side by side.
Reserve cushion vs. debt burden
Bubble color = liquidity risk flagFull screen — 30 highest-debt economies
The Fiscal Doomsday Clock
Debt CAGR vs. GDP CAGR, projected forward to the year each country's debt-to-GDP ratio effectively doubles. A static ratio is a snapshot; this is a trajectory — the difference between two countries at 60% debt/GDP today on completely different paths.
Shortest fuse — years until debt/GDP doubles
Top 15 most urgentCountdown, sorted by urgency
Currency Overvaluation vs. External Imbalance
Currencies that look strong on REER while the current account is actually worsening over a two-year trend — the classic setup for a forced devaluation. A stable deficit is a structural fact; a widening one is an emerging crisis.
Current account trajectory — now vs. forecast
Top 10 fastest-deteriorating, now → +2yr → +4yrFlagged currencies
Trade Resilience by Income Group
Do IDA (low-income) countries absorb export-price shocks worse than IBRD (middle-income) countries? Built from true monthly GEM export price observations, re-aggregated to annual — not a pre-aggregated shortcut.
The PPP Currency Mispricing Gap
The gap between each currency's theoretical PPP-implied rate and its actual market rate — a "fair value" screen built from raw macro data instead of burger prices. Large gaps flag currencies most over- or under-valued in real terms.
Most extreme mispricings
Top 15 by absolute deviationFull screen — 184 currencies
Stock Market Disconnect from Macro Fundamentals
Countries where equity markets are rallying while fiscal balances actively deteriorate — the asymmetric, contrarian signal a macro desk hunts for before consensus catches up and forces a repricing.
Stock gain vs. fiscal deterioration
Top-right quadrant = rallying markets, worsening fiscal positionDisconnected markets
Government Spending Efficiency vs. Growth Payoff
For every real dollar of government spending, how many real dollars of GDP growth did the economy produce? Spending level alone says nothing about quality — this isolates the countries getting the least growth per dollar spent.
Spend-to-growth efficiency
USD growth generated per USD of government spendFull screen
Unemployment–Inflation Misery Ranking, Region-Adjusted
Combined unemployment + inflation burden, ranked both globally and against regional norms — so a reviewer can see at a glance when a country is "bad globally but normal regionally" versus a genuine regional outlier.
Worst 15 by misery index
Full screen — 116 countries
The Consecutive-Year Deterioration Streak
Countries deteriorating across fiscal balance, debt and current account for three-plus consecutive years — distinguishing genuine structural decline from a single bad year (COVID-2020) that a fixed-lookback comparison would smooth over and miss.